Top 52 biggest Talossan election earthquakes.

[Glüc da Dhi]

Lüc is not gonna like this.

#47:

Elections to the 52nd Cosa - July 2018

Some shifts did happen during the most recent election. The RUMP dropped to the third place for the first time. Talossa also saw the disappearance after one term of the HAT party and the rebranding of the Republicans as the Trump-inspired Make Talossa Great Again. Meanwhile the gap between the MRPT and the resurgent FreeDems became much closer. After two elections where the MRPT was the largest by far we are now back in a situation where the three parties are nicely balanced. This is not entirely unprecedented. For the MRPT it is a movement in the direction but not quite all the way towards its strength before the 50th Cosa, for the Freedems it is their second best result and for the RUMP it is actually a slight increase compared to the previous election. Fears about very low turnout turned out to be unfounded. Neither did the results change the balance of power. For the third time in a row any combination of two of the three major parties could form a coalition. This means the sitting centre left MRPT-FreeDem coalition kept its majority and was able to continue, this time with a new seneschal, Ian Plätschisch. The size of the majority of the coalition did not significantly change, nor did the order of parties in it. A few more votes for the FreeDems and the story would have been very different though.

We should also consider that sometimes the relevance of events will become clearer in a historical context. These election results are still very young. Will the upwards trajectory of the left continue? Is this only a temporary setback for the MRPT? Is it a new equilibrium where the three parties keep each other in balance? Or is a new party about to disturb the three party system? Whatever happens, it might cause us to re-evaluate what we think about the current political situation. Let's see what the future brings us.

Turnout: 126 (+4)

Seats (EM200):

Moderate Radical Party (MRPT): 69 (-14)
Free Democrats of Talossan (FreeDems): 63 (+15)
Recruits for Upholding the Monarchy and its Principles (RUMP): 61 (+3)
Make Talossa Great Again (MTGA): 7 (new/+3*)

Richter scale: 3.0 - Often felt by people, but very rarely causes damage. Shaking of indoor objects can be noticeable.

*depending on whether you see it as a continuation of the Republican party

[Lüc da Schir]

Fake news. I have consistently described the latest GE as the most predictable in years. I assumed the FreeDem GOTV would be stronger, I suspected the RUMP was on track to lose second party status, and I knew there would be some setback for the MRPT due at least partly to the leadership change. (Interestingly, me and Zane have both lost the same amount of seats in our first General Elections as leaders.)

Whether the other predicters (?) shared my same train of thoughts or not it doesn't matter: all of the predictions were similar and mostly on point, and the average prediction and the Exit Poll were both remarkably close to the election results.

Edit: Bottom line is for once I agree with the pick.

Edit 2: You can't get out of this by crossing my name out

[Glüc da Dhi]

I did that before you responded

[Glüc da Dhi]

#46:

Elections to the 19th Cosa - February 1995.

I'm not quite sure where to put this, party because I'm not sure what the results were, party because this was a weird election, taking place after a weird period. Sadly, we only seem to have one perspective on this period which makes it even hard to understand what was happening. In the preceding period we saw a originally leftist party (the second Liberal incarnation) being taking over by the erratic (is that a correct description, it might be an understatement) duo Dave Kuenn and Ron Rosais (collectively Davron) using forged signatures (?), the CpI deciding this could not be revealed for privacy concerns (?) and the King, upset about this decision using it as legitimation for holding an OrgLaw referendum and not sending ballots to Davron so it would pass unanimously (!). So that happened, but after that not much remained of the liberal party and Kuenn was about to get kicked out. A new leftist challenge by Verbotten and Laurieir, the Vacillation Party, arose*, which caused the King to panic thinking they might win. This turned out to be totally unnecessary. Both Verbotten and Laurieir somehow didn't manage to vote, the VP got only 40 seats*, party ran by Davron (PdM) and Buffone (AP) didn't do much, the PC comfortably kept its majority, Gary Schwichtenberg was succeeded as PM by John McGarry and yet another leftist attempt at a serious challenge turned out to be much ado about nothing.

Turnout: 15 (-3**)

Seats (EM200, AP*)

Progressive Conservative Party (PC): 120* (+9/+15**)
Vacillation Party (VP): 40* (new)
Party of Death (PdM): 27 (new)
Anarchist Party (AP): 13 (new)

Former parties:
Liberal Party (PL): 0 (-78/-74**)
Dan Party (DP): 0 (-11/-21**)

Richter scale: 3.0

* According to the database the VP didn't even run and the PC got 160 seats (discussion).

** The database and AP seem to disagree about the exact percentages during the 18th election. Possibly this also concerns turnout (maybe it was 19 instead of 18).

[Glüc da Dhi]

#45:

Elections to the 43rd Cosa - October 2011

The Progressive Party was demoralised and ideologically divided after their major defeat in the 42nd Cosa elections, leading to the resignation of party leader Éovart Grischun, who went to form a new party, the Common Sense Party. Just before the new elections it turned out that another party, the Moderate Radical Party, had splintered away from the PP as well. It was therefore no surprise that the PPT would continue to sink even further, definitely ending the prospect of the progressives challenging the RUMP dominance in the near future, like they might have only a few elections ago. Meanwhile things were pretty silent in Talossa. The conservative RUMP government led was Litz Cjantscheir was going strong, quietly passing a number of judicial reforms. Probably the most surprising about the election was the rise in turnout, mostly driven by new immigration. Neither of the splinter parties managed to impress. The CRO contested the elections again after being absent last time and did reasonably well, but not spectacular. Maybe the diversification of the Cosa would provide some activity in the future, but it was clear from these results that the RUMP was as powerful as ever: things aren't going to change in Talossa any time soon.*

Turnout: 79 (+14)

Seats (EM200,wiki):

Restent Utramaßind els Muiteux Progreßíus / Still fending off the many Progressives (RUMP): 134 (-9)
Progresssive Party of Talossa (PPT): 40 (-17)
Cézembrean Reunification Organisation (CRO): 13 (new)
Moderate Radical Party (MRP): 8 (new)
Common Sense Party (CSP): 5 (new)

Richter scale: 3.0

*or are they?

[Glüc da Dhi]

Too bad a lot of the splintering of the PP took place behind the scenes. Apparently I announced my leaving the PP in March (I don't remember this happening so early at all, but a pm to alex suggests I did), but the first mention of the MRP on witt is only in September. I usually list the founding of the MRP as happening in August, but I don't remember why exactly. A lot happened around this time in personal messages (I think windows live messenger was still a thing then, or maybe even msn?) and a now shut down temporary PP website (progressives.webs.com). I vaguely remember there was some attempt a dual leadership of the PPT after Etho resigned, which didn't work out. Also some vague discussions about coming up with a united vision for the pp that went nowhere. I'm also pretty sure I've had a discussion with Etho about the PP splitting up way before all that happened. And later I remember lots of discussion with Alex about our plans for a name and party ideas, but I fear a lot of this is lost.

[Eðo Grischun]

Aug 29, 2018 13:38:52 GMT -6 Glüc da Dhi said:

Too bad a lot of the splintering of the PP took place behind the scenes. Apparently I announced my leaving the PP in March (I don't remember this happening so early at all, but a pm to alex suggests I did), but the first mention of the MRP on witt is only in September. I usually list the founding of the MRP as happening in August, but I don't remember why exactly. A lot happened around this time in personal messages (I think windows live messenger was still a thing then, or maybe even msn?) and a now shut down temporary PP website (progressives.webs.com). I vaguely remember there was some attempt a dual leadership of the PPT after Etho resigned, which didn't work out. Also some vague discussions about coming up with a united vision for the pp that went nowhere. I'm also pretty sure I've had a discussion with Etho about the PP splitting up way before all that happened. And later I remember lots of discussion with Alex about our plans for a name and party ideas, but I fear a lot of this is lost.

MSN Messenger, haha! And, whatever the Google messenger was before Hangouts existed. Those were the days, huh?

My memory on these events is very patchy.

Looking back on it all though, I feel that the chain of events were somewhat inevitable and unavoidable. At that time, the Kingdom went through a bit of an immigration spike, relative to that time. Gluc, Luc, Alex, myself, Flip and a good handful of others I'm forgetting all arrived within a short window. Somehow we all ended up under the same umbrella with the PP, but I think we ended up there before getting to know each other's politics (perhaps, before even working out our very own politics to ourselves). I don't think it took very long for that to cause the internal rift? A matter of weeks?

Yeah, most of it went on behind closed doors. I don't remember there ever being any arguments though. We all liked each other personally, but it quickly became apparent that our ideologies and visions were very different. If I remember rightly, the major straw that broke the camels back was differing opinions on an official stance towards the Republic. There was more, but I don't remember and the logs are long lost.

I think I remember the specific conversation with Gluc that he mentions above. I have a faint recollection that it was a 'make or break' discussion, sort of a last ditch attempt to see if common ground or compromise could be found. That discussion led to us knowing for sure where each other stood on certain topics and there were fundamental disagreements. I'm also certain that I was told of the plans to form a moderate party months before it became public. I don't remember the specifics, but I feel like I knew in advance.

Eventually, three small camps were left. Flip led the PP camp; Alex, Gluc and Luc formed the MRP; and I went off to form the CSP. This ensured more RUMP wins as all we had achieved was to fragment the centre-left vote.

[Lüc da Schir]

Aug 30, 2018 2:13:30 GMT -6 Eðo Grischun said:

Looking back on it all though, I feel that the chain of events were somewhat inevitable and unavoidable. At that time, the Kingdom went through a bit of an immigration spike, relative to that time. Gluc, Luc, Alex, myself, Flip and a good handful of others I'm forgetting all arrived within a short window. Somehow we all ended up under the same umbrella with the PP, but I think we ended up there before getting to know each other's politics (perhaps, before even working out our very own politics to ourselves). I don't think it took very long for that to cause the internal rift? A matter of weeks?

Yeah, most of it went on behind closed doors. I don't remember there ever being any arguments though. We all liked each other personally, but it quickly became apparent that our ideologies and visions were very different. If I remember rightly, the major straw that broke the camels back was differing opinions on an official stance towards the Republic. There was more, but I don't remember and the logs are long lost.

I think I remember the specific conversation with Gluc that he mentions above. I have a faint recollection that it was a 'make or break' discussion, sort of a last ditch attempt to see if common ground or compromise could be found. That discussion led to us knowing for sure where each other stood on certain topics and there were fundamental disagreements. I'm also certain that I was told of the plans to form a moderate party months before it became public. I don't remember the specifics, but I feel like I knew in advance.

Eventually, three small camps were left. Flip led the PP camp; Alex, Gluc and Luc formed the MRP; and I went off to form the CSP. This ensured more RUMP wins as all we had achieved was to fragment the centre-left vote.

I actually joined Talossa much later than the 2009 burst you spoke about, and never was a Progressive Party member - I joined the then-MRP in April 2012 I think, around six months after the PP splintered. By that time the CSP and PPT were already merging back, I'm pretty sure I wrote something on the Talossan Observer about it.

That doesn't mean I wouldn't have loved to be part of that kerfuffle though

[Glüc da Dhi]

Aug 30, 2018 2:13:30 GMT -6 Eðo Grischun said:

Looking back on it all though, I feel that the chain of events were somewhat inevitable and unavoidable. At that time, the Kingdom went through a bit of an immigration spike, relative to that time. Gluc, Luc, Alex, myself, Flip and a good handful of others I'm forgetting all arrived within a short window. Somehow we all ended up under the same umbrella with the PP, but I think we ended up there before getting to know each other's politics (perhaps, before even working out our very own politics to ourselves). I don't think it took very long for that to cause the internal rift? A matter of weeks?

Yeah, most of it went on behind closed doors. I don't remember there ever being any arguments though. We all liked each other personally, but it quickly became apparent that our ideologies and visions were very different. If I remember rightly, the major straw that broke the camels back was differing opinions on an official stance towards the Republic. There was more, but I don't remember and the logs are long lost.

I think I remember the specific conversation with Gluc that he mentions above. I have a faint recollection that it was a 'make or break' discussion, sort of a last ditch attempt to see if common ground or compromise could be found. That discussion led to us knowing for sure where each other stood on certain topics and there were fundamental disagreements. I'm also certain that I was told of the plans to form a moderate party months before it became public. I don't remember the specifics, but I feel like I knew in advance.

Eventually, three small camps were left. Flip led the PP camp; Alex, Gluc and Luc formed the MRP; and I went off to form the CSP. This ensured more RUMP wins as all we had achieved was to fragment the centre-left vote.

I think you are right about the inevitability of the whole thing. When I joined Talossa I joined the FGP, basically for the simple reason that you asked me and this allowed me to be involved in some way, I don't think there was a lot more to it. Then when that all came crashing down I joined the PP because Owen asked me and again offered me a way to be involved, but at that point it had also become important that it was the only real opposition to the RUMP. I think (but I may be wrong about this, my memory is quite patchy on this as well) the two reasons people were in the PP were 1) because of Owen or 2) because it was not the RUMP. This could be because the RUMP majority was boring or they just wanted there be more than one serious party or because they disagreed with certain RUMP policies or because they felt Talossa needed to change in some way and the RUMP wasn't exactly the most effective vehicle for change. Members were never united behind a single PP vision, there was never a clear decision making structure and the PP platform never really addressed some of the issues that would have been real reasons for members to oppose the RUMP because PP members often didn't agree on these. After Owen left one reason for some people to stick around was gone but it all kept working for as long as a potential victory over the rump was within sight. After that possibility became smaller the collapse was already a certainty, even though it took a while to realise.

I vaguely remember around the time you left, maybe a bit after we tried to do some sort of survey to identify what could be a coherent platform, but people either didn't respond or the answers were not clear enough to do something with it. There was always this sense (at least so I thought, not sure this was a correct interpretation) that we couldn't take certain positions because then some people might leave and there was a responsibility to keep everyone together.

Looking back I think the Republic was an issue that everyone was extremely cautious about. I feel like people were too worried about being seen as radical or too willing to compromise or not being taken serious anymore if they were too open to talks with them, which is so silly looking back. I think not once did the Progressive platform say if we get elected we're gonna try and reunite with the Republic. Deal with it. Even though progressives clearly would have been more open to doing that than the rest of the country at that stage.

Other issues I remember were the ban on micronational citizenship and the three strikes law. I don't remember having a strong opinion on that last one, I was always sort of fine with it that rule, but others definitely were strongly opposed it.

Anyway, it felt like such a relief when starting the MRP with Alex that we could just decide on a number of sometimes controversial policy positions and make a list of them and say: this is what we believe. (Even though looking back not all of these ideas were equally successful). Nobody left the party because of it, because there wasn't anyone to leave, and we didn't do well in the elections, but that was perfectly fine for us.

You are also right that we didn't fight about this in the end. There were no personal problems between the people that were left around the 42nd elections (though of course at that stage some of the people involved at the height of progressive succes had already left, sometimes in a way that did involve personal arguments). It just didn't work anymore. I remember Flip was pretty supportive when I told him I was going to leave as well.


Of course the reality might have been more complicated than what I remember. I feel like I've turned it all into a more or less coherent narrative in my head after it had already happened.

[Eðo Grischun]

Aug 30, 2018 11:29:58 GMT -6 Lüc da Schir said:

I actually joined Talossa much later than the 2009 burst you spoke about, and never was a Progressive Party member - I joined the then-MRP in April 2012 I think, around six months after the PP splintered. By that time the CSP and PPT were already merging back, I'm pretty sure I wrote something on the Talossan Observer about it.

That doesn't mean I wouldn't have loved to be part of that kerfuffle though

Awesome. That makes sense because I couldn't actually remember a single event that you were involved in and I was feeling quite bad about not remembering you. Makes me feel better to know that I wasn't remembering you as you simply weren't actually there yet.

[Eðo Grischun]

Aug 30, 2018 14:18:15 GMT -6 Glüc da Dhi said:

What Gluc said

I think you've summed it all up perfectly.

I think you are right about the inevitability of the whole thing. When I joined Talossa I joined the FGP, basically for the simple reason that you asked me and this allowed me to be involved in some way, I don't think there was a lot more to it.

And the reason the FGP formed was simply because Flip asked me while I asked him. We didn't 'belong' to anything yet and one night our conversation led to saying something like 'wanna do our own?', yeah, sure, you wanna?', 'yeah'. From there I think we just went round all the non-Rump and anti-Rump people asking them to join and they mostly said yes. However, a few problems here: a) we didn't put any thought into how compatible all these members would be together. For example, who would have thought it was a bad idea for Xhorxh Asmour and I to share a tent? Personality clashes were inevitable. Ideology clashes were inevitable. b) We made cheques our asses couldn't cash. To get everyone on board we struck deals. I was so desperate for it to work out that I made deals with person A and deals with person B that could not both happen. They contradicted each other. Hindsight and personal growth; I wish I had had them back then. One thing though, The FGP grew rather large in membership and if it hadn't have collapsed spectacularly in the way that it and when it did, I reckon it could have went on to achieve a remarkable, shock landslide victory, just on the numbers alone.

... the two reasons people were in the PP were 1) because of Owen or 2) because it was not the RUMP ...

Agree with this.

There was always this sense (at least so I thought, not sure this was a correct interpretation) that we couldn't take certain positions because then some people might leave and there was a responsibility to keep everyone together.

I remember this too. In fact, this is one of the things that still haunts me whenever I think back on it. There was a sense that we were all playing piggy in the middle with each other and were too afraid to take a definite stance in case it alienated some of the members. It was as if keeping the membership numbers high enough to be a viable opposition to the RUMP was more important that taking a stance on actual issues. This, of course, was no way for a political party to operate and I'm glad that after the break-up we all went our own ways, found our own flavours and declared this is what I/we stand for.

Anyway, it felt like such a relief when starting the MRP with Alex that we could just decide on a number of sometimes controversial policy positions and make a list of them and say: this is what we believe. (Even though looking back not all of these ideas were equally successful). Nobody left the party because of it, because there wasn't anyone to leave, and we didn't do well in the elections, but that was perfectly fine for us.

Same here with the CSP. I didn't do incredibly well with it, but I remember enjoying the freedom to have my own voice.

You are also right that we didn't fight about this in the end. There were no personal problems between the people that were left around the 42nd elections (though of course at that stage some of the people involved at the height of progressive succes had already left, sometimes in a way that did involve personal arguments). It just didn't work anymore. I remember Flip was pretty supportive when I told him I was going to leave as well.

Yeah, and remained friendly over the years since. There was no huge falling out between you, Alex, Flip and Myself. We just needed to go on our own journeys. You are right that sometimes personal arguments were a part of it. This point of time was the beginning of Viteu Marcianüs and I taking the first in many dislikes to each other. Oh, how we have both hated each other at times. I actually can't explain it, and I guess he couldn't either. Ultimately down to massive differences of opinion coupled with severe personality clashes. I'm glad that over the years, as we have all grown up (lets face it, we were all just kids 10 years ago), V and I have managed to draw a line and respect each other for standing on each others side of it.

Of course the reality might have been more complicated than what I remember. I feel like I've turned it all into a more or less coherent narrative in my head after it had already happened.

Yes, this too.

[Sir Alexandreu Davinescu]

From my perspective, I was always delighted when other parties made a go of it. I am so so glad that the era of RUMP one-party rule ended, since it wasn't healthy or good. We got a lot done and created a ton of culture, which is great (I still think we should print up and sell Talossopolia: wiki.talossa.com/Talossopolia), but it also only had the dynamism that individual enthusiasm could bring (limited when compared to collective competition). Thank you guys (and Reunision) for that!

[Glüc da Dhi]

#44:

Elections to the 21st Cosa - April 1996

Changes had taken place that were about to fundamentally alter the course of Talossan history. Nothing would ever be the same again...

You wouldn't say from the election results.

In August of the previous year in response to enduring inactivity Talossa got its own email address and began advertising online. In the months to follow Støtanneu went online as well, Talossa got its own website, and in February the first cybercit applied for citizenship. Others would soon join him, setting up a new newspaper and a new political party. This had no effects on the election results though as the first ones to actually gain citizenship did so in June. What did happen was the creation of two more political parties. The COP was founded by relatively new citizens, which was described by King Ben as right wing (this happens A LOT with parties the King doesn't like in Ár Päts), but apparently by themselves as being left wing. Danihel Laurieir (I guess he was bored with the VP?) meanwhile founded the 3WP, which is described as being pro-internet. The VP still ran as well without doing much. All this activity from others pushed the PC vote down, but not enough to lose their majority. Geoffrey Toumayan continued as PM.

Turnout: 17 (nc, db*)

Seats (EM200, db/AP):
Progressive Conservative Party (PC): 118 (-46)
Vacillation Party (VP): 35 (-1)
Clockwork Orange Party (COP): 35 (new)
Third Wave Party (3WP): 12 (new)

Richter Scale: 3.0

* AP lists the previous turnout as 11, which would mean +6

[Glüc da Dhi]

#43:

Elections to the 26th Cosa - August 1999

This election could have ended a bit higher if fate had decided differently. The PC won a majority of votes, only slightly down in percentage due to higher turnout, but because of the 20 seat cosa a single dice throw could have resulted in them getting 'only' 10 seats and thus losing their majority. Instead they got 11 and were allowed to continue, now for the first time with Mic'haglh Loquatsch as PM, who got promoted from Distain earlier during the 25th term after the resignation of Tamoran dal Nava. Apparently there had already been coalition talks ongoing with the RCT and/or ZPT which were now no longer needed. The votes for the opposition did shift quite a bit, with the relatively new (moderate?) RCT winning and the ZPT losing after a term that included lots of arguing about bug-nations, the passage of the semi-permeable wall act and the naturalisation of Matt Dabrowski whose citizenship had earlier been rejected. Despite all this only and with quite a bit of luck only one seat changed party.

Turnout (db): 47 (+5)

Vote percentage (db) / Seats (20, wiki):
Progressive Conservative Party (PC): 51.1% (-6.0) / 11 (nc)
Defenders of the Land of Talossa (ZPT): 19.2% (-4.6) / 4 (-1)
Rally of the Citizens of Talossa (RCT): 14.9% (+10.1) / 2 (+1)
Talossan Liberal Party (TLP): 14.9% (-0.6) / 3 (nc)

Richter scale: 3.0

[Glüc da Dhi]

#42:

Elections to the 38th Cosa - January 2008

Multiple new parties took part in the 38th Cosa elections. Citizen numbers (and thus turnout) were on the rise and some already hailed it as the "dawn of a multi-party Talossan democracy". Among the new parties were two leftist parties promoting different kinds of Talossan internationalism, the LRT, which would be a predecessor to the Progressive Party, and a party with the confusingly incorrect acronym DPD. In addition the more moderate CCCP was founded by ex-RUMP members and immediately went on to form an electoral coalition with the RUMP, supporting the same senatorial candidates. The LRT meanwhile formed a similar coalition with the CRO. Witt was a busy place these days, although sadly a lot of the election consisted about pointless arguments and accusations of negative campaigning. A true dawn of multi-party democracy the election was not, as none of the parties managed to come close to beating the RUMP. Out of all the parties the LRT performed best, while the CRO lost some votes, probably as a result of much more competition on the left. Ma la Mha continued as PM for the RUMP

Turnout: 61 (+13, witt)

Seats (EM200,witt) (seat difference/vote percentage difference*):
Revitalisation Under the Monarch Party (RUMP): 131 (-3/-1pt*)
La Renaixença Talossan / The Talossan Renaissance (LRT): 33 (new)
El Parti Democrätic dels Popuis / People's Democratic Party (DPD): 16 (new)
The Cybercits' and Cünmilvoc'hteirs' Coalition Party (CCCP): 16 (new)
Cézembre Reunification Organization (CRO): 3 (-22/-8pt*)

Richter scale: 3.0

* In the previous election seats won was not proportional to vote percentage.


Breneir Itravilatx made some great promo videos for the LRT. You can find them here.

Some more interesting threads:
election thread; Election commentary;DPD intro; CCCP promo; RUMP platform.
Will post some more links later as well.