Glüc da Dhi
Secretary of State
Posts: 6,112
Talossan Since: 5-14-2009
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Post by Glüc da Dhi on Aug 21, 2014 7:54:44 GMT -6
My pretty educated guess, based on the voter list would be:
RUMP 27 votes MRPT 9.5 votes ZRT 7 votes LIB 6.5 votes Prog 3 votes PC 1 votes
I don't think Im more than 4 votes off for the RUMP or more than 2 for any of the other parties, but of course I may be horribly wrong.
If Im correct the current score would be: RUMP 100 MRPT 35 ZRT 26 Lib 24 Prog 11 PC 4
which would mean the RUMP is doing pretty good, considering the historical trend of the RUMP performing better near the end of the elections.
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Post by Marti-Pair Furxheir S.H. on Aug 21, 2014 8:06:16 GMT -6
My pretty educated guess, based on the voter list would be: RUMP 27 votes MRPT 9.5 votes ZRT 7 votes LIB 6.5 votes Prog 3 votes PC 1 votes I don't think Im more than 4 votes off for the RUMP or more than 2 for any of the other parties. If Im correct the current score would be: RUMP 100 MRPT 35 ZRT 26 Lib 24 Prog 11 PC 4 which would mean the RUMP is doing pretty good, considering the historical trend of the RUMP performing better near the end of the elections. This is oddly fun... I see the actual results, can't share them, but can see how people will be surprised by the actual results.
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Post by Sir Alexandreu Davinescu on Aug 21, 2014 8:30:23 GMT -6
Can you tell us the current results now? We have nothing to compare them to, and you can avoid telling us again. It couldn't possibly violate anyone's privacy. What are the current totals?
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Glüc da Dhi
Secretary of State
Posts: 6,112
Talossan Since: 5-14-2009
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Post by Glüc da Dhi on Aug 21, 2014 8:58:29 GMT -6
As much as I'd like to know the accuracy of my predictions, I'm afraid I disagree. Sure, whether the RUMP has got 23 or 26 would probably not say much about any single person, but for the smaller parties it does. Many voters are rather predictable, so when we hear for example that the Progressives have only 2 votes it wouldnt be too difficult to figure out which prominent Prog member did not vote for them. The more votes, the more difficult this becomes, assuming there will be at least 2, but maybe even 5-10 other Prog voters voting for them. Same for the other small parties, at least parties like PC or TWP, but ever for larger party like the Lib. Suppose we hear now that they have 8 votes, and the end the result is only 9. This would mean at least some very likely Lib voters have not done so, and it should not be too difficult to pinpoint who didnt.
I guess we'll just have to wait for election night.
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Post by Marti-Pair Furxheir S.H. on Aug 21, 2014 9:01:09 GMT -6
Can you tell us the current results now? We have nothing to compare them to, and you can avoid telling us again. It couldn't possibly violate anyone's privacy. What are the current totals? I didn't in the last election, and I don't think I will this time. What I am thinking over however, is to provide at the midpoint of the election (on the 23rd) a summary result so far, but I am not sure yet if it is a good idea or now, since we know who voted and it might provide speculation, especially if not that many citizens vote on the second half. So, it's a conundrum... I really, really take the secret ballot seriously and feel like saying anything on the results might cause a problem. I can however reveal an approximate result of the referendum. I can reveal that the ratio from Per to Contra is roughly 2 to 1, with a little less Abstain than Contra. The Per are greater than Contra and Abstain.
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Post by Sir Alexandreu Davinescu on Aug 21, 2014 9:08:23 GMT -6
Well, no surprise there. Referendums pretty much always pass.
Okay, well, it was worth a shot. And Gluc's point is also well-taken. Okeydokey!
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Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN
Seneschal
the new Jim Hacker
Posts: 6,635
Talossan Since: 6-25-2004
Dame Since: 9-8-2012
Motto: Expulseascâ, reveneascâ
Baron Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
Duke Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
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Post by Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN on Aug 21, 2014 16:40:10 GMT -6
[ What I am thinking over however, is to provide at the midpoint of the election (on the 23rd) a summary result so far NO. That would violate the sanctity of the secret ballot. Everyone who wants a real, if unofficial, "snapshot" of the election should vote in the Exit Poll. Also, I would like to suggest that Glüc's miserably pessimistic election predictions were wrong last time and they will be again.
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Glüc da Dhi
Secretary of State
Posts: 6,112
Talossan Since: 5-14-2009
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Post by Glüc da Dhi on Aug 21, 2014 16:45:27 GMT -6
I didnt make a prediction about how the rest of the election will go (actually my prediction in the chatroom was 95 seats for the RUMP), just an estimate about the standing at the moment, based on which people have voted so far. I dont think its too far off, but sadly we'll never know.
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Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN
Seneschal
the new Jim Hacker
Posts: 6,635
Talossan Since: 6-25-2004
Dame Since: 9-8-2012
Motto: Expulseascâ, reveneascâ
Baron Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
Duke Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
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Post by Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN on Aug 21, 2014 18:10:38 GMT -6
Last time you were predicting a RUMP landslide on the basis that they were dominating the open voting. That seems to be happening again. But our voters vote in secret, predominately.
I want to know - where are all these Lib and Prog voters coming from? Are you suggesting that they are cannibalising ModRad and ZRT votes, nothing from the RUMP? You are not giving any account of voter movements.
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Post by Marti-Pair Furxheir S.H. on Aug 21, 2014 18:25:09 GMT -6
[ What I am thinking over however, is to provide at the midpoint of the election (on the 23rd) a summary result so far NO. That would violate the sanctity of the secret ballot. Everyone who wants a real, if unofficial, "snapshot" of the election should vote in the Exit Poll. Also, I would like to suggest that Glüc's miserably pessimistic election predictions were wrong last time and they will be again. Like I said, I was thinking about it... Like perhaps just a rank of the parties, but I don't feel good about it. Personally, it would be NO. I can reveal which party is last... and it's no surprise: it's the PC. But that's all I can say.
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Glüc da Dhi
Secretary of State
Posts: 6,112
Talossan Since: 5-14-2009
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Post by Glüc da Dhi on Aug 21, 2014 18:27:40 GMT -6
Pfft, adding an extra layer to the prediction does not make it more accurate. But my guess is that if there are 9 Prog + Lib votes so far 4 or 5 of those people voted MRPT, 2 voted ZRT, 1 or 2 voted RUMP and 1 is a new citizen. If there are more, which may very well be the case, I dont know where they came from.
But I will stop talking about this, cause I actually have important stuff to do and my obsession with numbers is not healthy for me or useful to any of you.
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Glüc da Dhi
Secretary of State
Posts: 6,112
Talossan Since: 5-14-2009
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Post by Glüc da Dhi on Aug 21, 2014 18:36:24 GMT -6
I can reveal which party is last... and it's no surprise: it's the PC. But that's all I can say. You shouldnt reveal stuff like that...
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Post by Marti-Pair Furxheir S.H. on Aug 21, 2014 19:09:41 GMT -6
I can reveal which party is last... and it's no surprise: it's the PC. But that's all I can say. You shouldnt reveal stuff like that... To be honest, I am not even sure it's the case...
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M. Þ. Réitschar
Citizen of Talossa
Mataiwos Þagunitz
Posts: 71
Talossan Since: 9/6/2014
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Post by M. Þ. Réitschar on Aug 22, 2014 1:09:34 GMT -6
I see PC got a public vote from a Sir X Pol Briga, or somebody. So you won't be a one vote party after all.
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Post by C. Carlüs Xheraltescù on Aug 22, 2014 2:53:23 GMT -6
Interesting that the PC has won a vote off the ZRT...
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