Sir C. M. Siervicül
Posts: 9,636
Talossan Since: 8-13-2005
Knight Since: 7-28-2007
Motto: Nonnisi Deo serviendum
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Post by Sir C. M. Siervicül on Feb 4, 2016 16:42:40 GMT -6
We had a big discussion about this around a month ago. M-P came to the conclusion that in the absence of any evidence that the opt-in law was intended to have retroactive effect, those who became citizens during the opt-out regime would be included in the database unless they opt out, while those who became citizens during the opt-in regime would only be included if they opt in. Then he created a neat tool to allow anyone to change their status and emailed everyone about it.
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Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN
Seneschal
the new Jim Hacker
Posts: 6,635
Talossan Since: 6-25-2004
Dame Since: 9-8-2012
Motto: Expulseascâ, reveneascâ
Baron Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
Duke Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
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Post by Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN on Feb 4, 2016 17:28:13 GMT -6
I'm surprised and somewhat relieved to note that the other party leaders didn't notice this yet, which means the FreeDems did our voter outreach first!
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Post by Eðo Grischun on Feb 5, 2016 14:24:11 GMT -6
I'd like to know how the people who previously fought a campaign against open ballots / for secret ballots on a fundamental argument of 'the bandwagon effect' are not screaming the same arguments when it comes to early exit polling.
I'm all for exit polling. I'm all for the current choice we have as voters in regards to open or secret voting.
I'm struggling, however, not to see a certain level of partisan hypocrisy if someone's thinking is that early exit polls don't cause a bandwagon effect while an open ballot does. ??
*shrug*
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Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN
Seneschal
the new Jim Hacker
Posts: 6,635
Talossan Since: 6-25-2004
Dame Since: 9-8-2012
Motto: Expulseascâ, reveneascâ
Baron Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
Duke Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
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Post by Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN on Feb 5, 2016 14:52:30 GMT -6
... this isn't exit polling, that happens after voting has started. Voting starts Feb 15.
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Glüc da Dhi
Secretary of State
Posts: 6,112
Talossan Since: 5-14-2009
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Post by Glüc da Dhi on Feb 5, 2016 16:14:34 GMT -6
Now voting in the poll doesnt mean you will vote the same way in the election. Still its relevant to note that just like a secret ballot, the poll is anonymous. An important argument in favor of voting using the secret ballot is that if you show everyone and can prove to everyone how you vote, other forces may influence your behaviour than what party you prefer. There's not much hypocritical about that argument. (Also, you should be able to know that it has nothing to do with partisanship. If I joined a different party tomorrow I would still support a secret ballot.)
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Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN
Seneschal
the new Jim Hacker
Posts: 6,635
Talossan Since: 6-25-2004
Dame Since: 9-8-2012
Motto: Expulseascâ, reveneascâ
Baron Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
Duke Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
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Post by Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN on Feb 5, 2016 16:18:52 GMT -6
Not sure if you're referring to the elmundeu poll or the FreeDems poll, but both are anonymous. We've already had results, in that one respondent wrote back with some VERY RUDE comments attached! I think we reached da Biondeu by mistake.
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Glüc da Dhi
Secretary of State
Posts: 6,112
Talossan Since: 5-14-2009
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Post by Glüc da Dhi on Feb 5, 2016 16:21:40 GMT -6
I was talking about the El Mundeu poll, but it guess it goes for the FreeDem one as well I guess. I was responding to s;reu Grishuns comments, sorry if that was unclear.
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Glüc da Dhi
Secretary of State
Posts: 6,112
Talossan Since: 5-14-2009
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Post by Glüc da Dhi on Feb 5, 2016 16:27:41 GMT -6
Either way if someone wants to say how they voted or how they will vote, nothing (apart from totalitarian restrictions on freedom of speech that nobody supports) can prevent that person from doing so. There's a difference between expressing and opinion and actually casting a ballot, which is the core of our representative democracy.
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Post by Eðo Grischun on Feb 6, 2016 6:15:25 GMT -6
All those arguments are valid and have their place, but its not the argument I was getting at.
In past elections it was argued that an open ballot or public vote held over the course of two weeks to four weeks led to a definite bandwagon bias. The specific argument at the time was that the bandwagon effect helped the then incumbent party, which was the RUMP.
Dame Miestra is correct in pointing out that exit polling begins after the voting has begun, but, elsewhere in the world the results of an exit poll are not released or broadcast until the polling places have closed. In the UK, exit polls are released at 10.00pm, after voting has closed and the count begun, for much the same reason as noted above; The bandwagon effect or voter influence. Bear in mind, if we do get to doing scientific and fairly accurate exit polls, they would probably be released at various points after Balloting Day and during the 2 weeks voting period and NOT be released after Election Day.
Exit polling or regular polling, anonymous polling, weighted data, etc are all fine and well. But, I'm wondering how there isn't a considerable level of dissonance in arguing that an open ballot leads to a bandwagon effect and campaigning hard and heavy on that argument, while being okay with polling, which would arguably have the same effects.
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Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN
Seneschal
the new Jim Hacker
Posts: 6,635
Talossan Since: 6-25-2004
Dame Since: 9-8-2012
Motto: Expulseascâ, reveneascâ
Baron Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
Duke Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
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Post by Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN on Feb 6, 2016 14:18:36 GMT -6
Personally, I find the argument that anonymous opinion polls are anything to do with public voting with one's name attached unfathomable. In addition, I think there's a public interest in opinion polling - not necessary to predict election results, but for the parties to get in touch with the voters (particularly non-regular Witt participants) to find out what their concerns and interests are. As the Free Dems have done in our latest poll.
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Post by Inxheneu Crova on Feb 8, 2016 4:06:52 GMT -6
I'm in two minds about polls. Maybe its just better to let the mystery of universal suffrage play out without trying to predict it, especially as so many people are now choosing the secret ballot option, and when the sample size is so small.
I have to say I don't get the analogy between compulsory, public voting in order to maintain one's citizenship and a voluntary poll, where one can tell the pollster to get stuffed.
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Ián Tamorán S.H.
Chief Justice of the Uppermost Court
Proud Philosopher of Talossa
Posts: 1,401
Talossan Since: 9-27-2010
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Post by Ián Tamorán S.H. on Feb 8, 2016 9:46:55 GMT -6
I would suggest that pre-Voting there can be as many opinion or political polls as people wish, public or private.
BUT during the process of Voting - whilst the voting booths are open, so to speak - there can still be exit polls, or any other polls - BUT they must remain private, and may not be published in any way until after voting has finished, and the voting booths are closed.
Thus - poll to your heart's content before and after the voting, but absolutely no publication of any (new) poll results during the time of voting.
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Sir C. M. Siervicül
Posts: 9,636
Talossan Since: 8-13-2005
Knight Since: 7-28-2007
Motto: Nonnisi Deo serviendum
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Post by Sir C. M. Siervicül on Feb 8, 2016 10:43:11 GMT -6
I have to say I don't get the analogy between compulsory, public voting in order to maintain one's citizenship and a voluntary poll, where one can tell the pollster to get stuffed. Well, Etho's point is that both implicate the bandwagon effect, which is true. There are plenty of studies examining the effect of pre-election opinion polls on voting behaviour. That being said, I think there are two levels on which the bandwagon effect can work. One is the individual's predisposition to follow behaviour modeled by others, or to identify with or feel like part of a winning group. The other is the individual's desire to be identified by others, or seen as part of the winning group. Pre-election opinion polls and exit polls work only on the first level. Public voting works on both levels.
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Post by Inxheneu Crova on Feb 8, 2016 11:16:03 GMT -6
According to this article the bandwagon effect seems to give a "bump" of 4-5% among undecided voters. Now that is based on data from elections with thousands of voters, so it may not scale down, but lets assume it does for arguments sake. Lets assume an electorate of 150 voters (though Id be happy for this to be on the low side, Talossans!)'. Lets assume 1/3 of those are genuinely undecided (take away a 1/3 for actives, and a third for sympathisers who arent active). 4-5% of this probably generous 50 undecided voters is...2-3 votes. Not insignificant in a close election, of course, but even to eke out this fairly miserable impact the assumptions have to be generous. Where you might see a strong impact is if somehow a poll got a reputation as having real predictive power. Then people may accept the model for reality-in fact in that article they point out a study that showed a strong effect where people perceived that the opinion offeted was that of an expert. But El Mundeu just got started so has no record to support any claim to accuracy, and the FreeDems arent even going to publish theirs.
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Post by Sir Alexandreu Davinescu on Feb 8, 2016 11:49:29 GMT -6
I'm not sure that a 5% number is at all reliable when translated to Talossan scale. I can see a lot of reasons why it could be either much higher or much lower.
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