Glüc da Dhi
Secretary of State
Posts: 6,112
Talossan Since: 5-14-2009
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Post by Glüc da Dhi on Feb 4, 2016 14:56:06 GMT -6
What does the "weighted poll" bar mean? The first bar are the previous election result. The weighted poll is simply the responses I got to the first poll weighted by voting behaviour in the previous cosa. The prediction is a rather arbitrary attempt to come up with a better prediction based on the same data with a different model. Not very succesful so far, but we'll see where it goes.
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Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN
Seneschal
the new Jim Hacker
Posts: 6,635
Talossan Since: 6-25-2004
Dame Since: 9-8-2012
Motto: Expulseascâ, reveneascâ
Baron Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
Duke Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
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Post by Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN on Feb 4, 2016 14:58:41 GMT -6
Having some knowledge of polling, and having covered this polling methodology by Gluc fairly in-depth, I'd be fairly curious to know how much more scientific one could get. Three words: larger sample size. Glüc doesn't detail it, but I will assume his sample of 40 were active citizens who participate on Witt, which is unrepresentative of the broader population.
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Post by Sir Alexandreu Davinescu on Feb 4, 2016 15:00:20 GMT -6
Forty is a pretty good number of potential respondents. You'll do more than that?
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Glüc da Dhi
Secretary of State
Posts: 6,112
Talossan Since: 5-14-2009
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Post by Glüc da Dhi on Feb 4, 2016 15:02:54 GMT -6
We didn't have 40 respondents, just 11. (It's on the site) But we'll do more than one poll. We did not select for active citizens when sending the poll. We probably would have gotten more if we did. I'm definitely planning to get a bigger sample using the panel. Be sure to sign to up! (Even if you prefer the FreeDems poll, it would be a shame if both got fewer responses because people had to pick one.)
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Post by Sir Alexandreu Davinescu on Feb 4, 2016 15:09:53 GMT -6
That's the point... you reached out to forty citizens and got 11 respondents, and that was your sample. I'm wondering if the FDT is going to reach out to even more citizens than forty. That's a lot of work, especially since it's got to be done manually (without any sort of database of email addresses). Is the FDT going to use the Chancery list?
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Post by Breneir Itravilatx on Feb 4, 2016 15:26:45 GMT -6
That's the point... you reached out to forty citizens and got 11 respondents, and that was your sample. I'm wondering if the FDT is going to reach out to even more citizens than forty. That's a lot of work, especially since it's got to be done manually (without any sort of database of email addresses). Is the FDT going to use the Chancery list?Good question.
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Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN
Seneschal
the new Jim Hacker
Posts: 6,635
Talossan Since: 6-25-2004
Dame Since: 9-8-2012
Motto: Expulseascâ, reveneascâ
Baron Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
Duke Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
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Post by Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN on Feb 4, 2016 15:28:58 GMT -6
Well, yes. We're sending out direct mail advertising - as we're entitled to - and will include a survey of how likely the various voters are to vote FreeDem. You can't say it will definitely be more accurate than an 11 person sample, but I am expecting it to provide much more sobering responses, seeing as we will be contacting people who haven't actually been involved in Talossa for years and are thus more likely to vote for, er, more traditional parties.
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Post by Breneir Itravilatx on Feb 4, 2016 15:32:03 GMT -6
So, a partisan poll will give "sobering" responses. Hmmm.
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Post by Sir Alexandreu Davinescu on Feb 4, 2016 15:32:08 GMT -6
Ah, I see. Well, I'm not sure how this is more scientific than a randomly sampled and appropriately weighted poll, especially if it's delivered from one of the possible choices and with an advertisement, as opposed to an independent news organization. But I'll definitely be interested in the results
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Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN
Seneschal
the new Jim Hacker
Posts: 6,635
Talossan Since: 6-25-2004
Dame Since: 9-8-2012
Motto: Expulseascâ, reveneascâ
Baron Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
Duke Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
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Post by Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN on Feb 4, 2016 15:46:06 GMT -6
Yeah, it will be partisan which is why we won't be publicly revealing the results. But I do think that, since it will target those Talossans who aren't on Witt regularly- which is the RUMP's fortress of support - it's unlikely to replicate these positive results. I encourage all other parties to do likewise!
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Glüc da Dhi
Secretary of State
Posts: 6,112
Talossan Since: 5-14-2009
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Post by Glüc da Dhi on Feb 4, 2016 15:47:42 GMT -6
I thought the mailing list was opt-in now? Shouldnt there be like 5 people still on there?
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Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN
Seneschal
the new Jim Hacker
Posts: 6,635
Talossan Since: 6-25-2004
Dame Since: 9-8-2012
Motto: Expulseascâ, reveneascâ
Baron Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
Duke Since: Feudal titles are for gimps
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Post by Miestrâ Schivâ, UrN on Feb 4, 2016 16:00:04 GMT -6
There are in fact 200+ names on the Chancery list. Only a small number of people have chosen not to opt in or to be only contacted directly through the Chancery. Other party leaders can confirm this.
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Post by Breneir Itravilatx on Feb 4, 2016 16:03:47 GMT -6
There are in fact 200+ names on the Chancery list. Only a small number of people have chosen not to opt in or to be only contacted directly through the Chancery. Other party leaders can confirm this. Confirmed. Marti-Pair Furxheir S.H. can you please clarify?
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Glüc da Dhi
Secretary of State
Posts: 6,112
Talossan Since: 5-14-2009
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Post by Glüc da Dhi on Feb 4, 2016 16:06:19 GMT -6
200 people have opted in? How's that even possible?
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Post by Sir Alexandreu Davinescu on Feb 4, 2016 16:14:43 GMT -6
That's surprising.
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